Sponsored Content

Intermarkets' Privacy Policy

Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!

Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

« Geraghty: 2008 Will Not Be 2012 | Main | Trump: Ryan's Plan Is "Too Extreme" »
April 19, 2011

Unprecedented: Liberal Media Dares To Wonder: Did Obama's Plan To Not Have A Plan Speech Backfire?

Jonah Goldberg quotes NBC's reliably-reflexively-liberal First Read. (Clarification: The below quote is all from NBC; I'm just linking Jonah because he found it. Some readers mistakenly thought Goldberg was claiming employment's on the rise -- no, that's NBC.)

*** Did last week’s speech backfire? A new Washington Post/ABC poll — which shows President Obama’s approval down to 47%, and with 44% believing the U.S. economy is getting worse (when employment is actually on the rise) — suggests that the climbing gas prices have soured the public’s mood, big time. “Almost eight in 10 say inflation in their area is getting worse, and more than seven in 10 say higher gasoline prices is causing financial hardship at home,” the Post writes. But this poll, as well as the Gallup surveys, also seems to confirm that the president’s speech last week might not have played well. For one thing, and this is true going back to the ’08 campaign, Obama usually doesn’t get rewarded when he comes off as too partisan (even though the left loves it). More importantly, last week’s speech was on a topic — the deficit/debt — that most Americans don’t find as important as the economy/jobs. And in the Post/ABC poll, Obama took a hit with independents, with 55% of them disapproving of his job.

Goldberg notes that the post-speech Conventional Wisdom was either that it was "irresponsible-but-[politically]-effective" -- this the response from the right and middle -- and on the left it was "fantastic-and-[politically]-effective."

It appears the "effective" prong of the CW response was wrong.

And bear in mind this ABCNews poll is seriously skewed in the Democrats' favor, figuring, I guess, that there are now 3% more Democrat-leaning or -identifying voters than Obama's 2008 vote-share.

Yes, I think that seems likely.

It's the movement, particularly among independents, that counts, and the movement is down.

Geraghty finds some other bad news for Obama in that skewed poll.

Obama is actually doing worse on his chances for reelection than December. Right now, 28 percent of respondents (again, adults, not registered or likely voters) would definitely vote for Obama for reelection, and another 25 percent said they would consider it. The number who say now that they will not vote for Obama is 45 percent. The December poll had 26 percent definitely supporting, but 30 percent in the “maybe” category.

Goldberg notes at the end of this post that Conventional Wisdom keeps failing to accurately predict events.

Part of the problem here is that Obama's administration is, in several ways, "unprecedented." And if something's unprecedented, then past precedents fail to serve as reliable guides.

Has anyone governed as unabashedly left as Obama? No; it's unprecedented.

Has the US ever posted a staggering trillion and half yearly deficit? No, not even close. It's unprecedented.

Has the US ever voted for a half-black man as President, partly not out of genuine support but just out of racial good-will, and thus, having not truly voted for Obama based on his capabilities or policies, might have a particularly high level of buyer's remorse? No, that's obviously never happened before; it's unprecedented.

Has any candidate ever promised a supernatural agenda which included, literally, causing the waters of the earth to fall before him? No, no one's ever done that, at least not since Babylon circa 1500 BC.

Has the US suffered a three year deep recession bordering on a depression since the thirties? No, it's unprecedented.

Has the government of the US ever acted as a hostile occupying force and imposed a massively unpopular law on the nation despite the strong majority hostility to it? No, it's unprecedented.

If current models and current conventional wisdom is based upon a series of default assumptions which are actually now untrue, then the old models and old conventional wisdom fails to give us any guide.

The rules haven't applied to Obama all his life. Fortunately, going forward, the general rules of predicting future events also don't apply to him.

digg this
posted by Ace at 12:55 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Martini Farmer: "I know some here take issue with calling Nikki Hal ..."

Divide by Zero [/i]: " [i]3. Rebuild the wall at the border’s urb ..."

Nikki Haley's luxuriously hairy nipples - Alex Jones Was Right: "I'd love to see the numbers for women. I bet rates ..."

whig: "149 If Trump had just used his brain and said befo ..."

It's me donna : "Nikki reminds me of the Wicked witch in the Wizard ..."

Gunner: "DeSantis will do the bare minimum, if that, to hel ..."

[/i][/b][/s][/u]I used to have a different nic: "Posted by: whig at March 04, 2024 08:16 AM (bk5GW) ..."

[/i][/b]andycanuck (2yu8s)[/s][/u]: "Robert F. Kennedy Jr @RobertKennedyJr Mar 3 The P ..."

LinusVanPelt : "I listened to a 20-minute summary of the Fani Will ..."

neverenoughcaffeine: "VIA. Too early, s/b black soldier worms. ..."

JROD: "@107 Tom Servo-Pity? I think she's running because ..."

JackStraw: ">> If Trump had just used his brain and said befor ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64