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February 10, 2011

Mubarak: Mumbling Some Shit That Sounds Like He's Saying He's Staying Until the Elections
Speculation: Gauntlet Is Thrown -- Either Mubarak Gets Killed or the Protesters Do

Update: It's hard to follow him but I think he's saying he's going to lead the "dialog" of changes to the constitution because he's got a "responsibility" to do it.

I am not exactly sure, but it sounds like he's insisting he'll stay in power until the elections.

This is probably going to incite the crowds slightly, which will in turn give the military the pretext to bust heads -- if they're still on board with that.

Could be ugly.

Update: The crowd is hollering now -- not sure what triggered it. Perhaps they're just realizing he's saying "You'll get nothing and like it."

They have a point about getting him out of office now. The September compromise may sound good, but the problem is that Mubarak will renege, of course. The moment the heat's off, he will attempt to reestablish power. Once the crowds dissipate, he'll hunt down the protesters and jail them (at best).

This is going to end with blood.

What's the Crowd Shouting? In English: "Get out, get out."

Update: Transferring some power to his Vice President. Whoo. Not even lifting the Emergency Law (martial law which was imposed long ago, like 30 years ago). Says he might lift that. At some point.

Well, the die is cast.

Here's what's going on:

The protesters will now be hounded and jailed and maybe killed if Mubarak stays.

Really, Mubarak has engineered this into a situation where the protesters either have to kill him, or be killed themselves. I know which they'll chose; I just can't guess the outcome of that choice.


...

In which he may or may not transfer power to a military council which may or may not be headed by Suleiman.

Megyn Kelly says she hears the army is only willing to toss the protesters Mubarak's scalp, but will insist they accept Suleiman. A man called "Mubarak's hit man" and a torturer.

I’m not sure what her source is, but Megyn Kelly’s reporting on Fox that the army plans to “act” against the protesters if they reject the handover of power to Suleiman as not good enough. That’s basically what I argued up above — that the regime’s handing them Mubarak’s scalp to appease them and end the demonstrations, but that the regime will otherwise crawl on roughly as is.

More: From rdbrewer in the sidebar, the Saudis told Obama to back Mubarak, at least to the extent of letting him arrange his own exit "with dignity."

Clapper: The Muslim Brotherhood is Non-Violent and... Secular: Yes, very secular, except for their slogan being "Islam is the answer" and planning a transition to sharia law in Egypt.

Andy McCarthy is amused by how stupid this all is.


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posted by Ace at 03:56 PM

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