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January 05, 2011

CAC's utterly pointless first 2012 US Presidential Election Projection

Hey, why not? We are nearly 2 years away from election day 2012, but I know most of you morons have this on your minds constantly.
Based on the demographic shifts AND the very hard electorate shifts in the Midwest and West, there is good news and bad news for both President Obama and the unknown Republican opponent:

USPresRaceMap2012010511


First off, the obvious bad news for us- with increasingly Democratic demographics in the West Coast (more from Californication than immigration actually), Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada -3 big swing states in 2008- I feel are in Obama's pocket at least for now. While we did flip a total of 4 congressional seats here, and 1 governors mansion, we failed miserably in Colorado and Nevada in shifting the state-level politics to the degree we succeeded in the South, Midwest, and hell, even Maine. When Maine goes more red in a Republican tsunami than a "purple" state like Colorado, you really have to question the latter's violetness.

Now the good news- the entire Midwest is absolutely in play for us, and that is huge. While Michigan and Wisconsin have always flirted with us in the past, voter fraud and an undying ability for their residents to still vote D no matter how much the disappointment may no longer hold true. With an all-Republican statehouse in Wisconsin, the voter fraud fighting laws can finally go through, and Michigan's shift right after years of going D in the end could be a harbinger for how it might swing in 2012. If one thing is clear after 2010, Milwaukee and Detroit are no longer Democratic lifesavers for statewide races.

Maine goes onto the list this year as a swing state joining its neighbor New Hampshire for obvious reasons- the 2010 massacre. Republicans have not held such massive majorities in Maine since before I was a spermatozoa. Maine has been a "swing" state for a few recent elections (besides 2008) and it most certainly deserves that status again after the Demplosion.

In addition, several Obama08 states are NOT going back in that category, if voter self-identification polls and the election results of 2010 are any indicator:F Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina. In the sunshine state a badly damaged Republican still won the governors race, Rubio crushed, and the GOP picked up 4 house seats in their biggest House sweep in the South. North Carolina now has a Republican legislature since before the invention of the telephone, and Indiana sent all but 3 of it's Democratic representatives packing. All three states' flings with Obama were products of the 2008 economic uncertainty- an uncertainty President Obama has utterly failed in correcting and the 2010 electorates let him know that.

If you do the math with the remaining swing states, you need as little as 2 states- Michigan and Ohio- to get to 269, the lowest we need to actually win since we won control of the House of Representatives last November.

Anyway, enjoy the silly and utterly purposeless map and argue away. I have to get started on that Picasso post.


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posted by CAC at 03:13 PM

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