More on Exit Demos

Purple Avenger noted yesterday that the cable network-commissioned exit polls had some interesting results. Some of them will just make you say "huh." Others will bring out your Dr. Evil laugh. I'll just highlight two.

Here's a "Huh." Purple Avenger had the statistic that 31% of gay and lesbian voters voted GOP this time. That's up from 24% in the 2006 mid-terms. Interestingly, it also represents a greater shift toward the GOP than in the Hispanic, black, and young voter demographics. In other words, gay and lesbian voters disproportionately fled from Democrats, compared to other typically Democratic demos.

Now here's a "mwah-hah-hah."

Voters over 65 favored Republicans last week by a 21-point margin after flirting with Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections and favoring John McCain by a relatively narrow 8-point margin in 2008.

Concerned by changes to Medicare and compelled by a Republican Party that promised a return to America’s glory days, seniors played a crucial — and often understated — role in races across the country. They were unswayed by ubiquitous Democratic warnings about Republican changes to Social Security. And they put a series of campaigns out of reach for Democrats.

The shift in older voters was the most dramatic swing of any age group, George Mason political scientist Michael McDonald said, and it gave the GOP the “magnitude” of its victory.

I was most struck by the observation that Democratic scare-mongering related to Social Security didn't grip seniors, who have realized that their benefits are sacrosanct.

But Democratic counterattacks on Republicans who were on record in favor of Social Security reform or privatization failed to gain traction with older voters. Those attacks resonated best with middle-aged adults worried about their retirement. According to Lake, seniors didn’t seem to buy the argument that GOP candidates were planning dramatic changes to Social Security.

“That third rail has been pretty well unplugged. Seniors know better. Nobody’s going to take it away,” said Martin. “They’ve been using that scare tactic since Goldwater days. It was a canard then, and it’s a canard now.”

The shift to GOP among seniors was the largest among the age groups compared to 2006. And there are more seniors voting now than four years ago. There will also be a larger pool of possible senior voters in 2012. If seniors aren't buying Obama's snake-oil, and it seems like they aren't, I'd say it's time to get your evil chuckle on.

posted by Gabriel Malor at 07:47 AM

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