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General Election Thread
November 02, 2010

IN, KY: Barron Hill Defeated In IN-9;
"Bloody Eighth," IN-8, Goes R as Well

Hill Down. The Big Wave is on; the partial Super Wave may yet be on as well.

More: Andy Barr Catching Up To Incumbent In Bellwether KY-6. Tight as a tick, about 1% lead for the Democrat.

I'm unhappy with this -- I expected that Andy Barr would win by 5%. But then, I was hoping for the 90+ wave.

Update: Now the gap is only 0.2% with 85% in. Go Andy Go!

Meanwhile, in IN, Jackie Walorski is close to catching Joe Donnelly.


...


Baron Hill well behind with 25% of the vote in. This is "bonus damage" territory, a win that would prefigure something like 55+ pickups.

Coats projected to win over Ellsworth, as expected. The interesting thing here, I guess, is that it was called so early -- a rout, then, I imagine.

...


Yarmuth ahead of Lally by 10,000 in KY-3. As mentioned below, an R win in this very-blue district would have been a sign of the super-wave. Alas, this particular sign seems to not be coming.


...

Closing now. NOT Closing Now! Only parts of these states closed at 6. You still have ten minutes to vote in some parts.

Sorry! Bad error.

...


KY unofficial results.

Indiana results.


Drew says keep your eye on KY-3. If the R's take that, the rout may be on.

Here's Nate Silver's cheat sheet.

What does a rout mean? Well if KY-3 (Yarmth (D) v. Lally (R)) falls, for example, we're looking at the Super-Wave. If Yarmuth falls, we're looking at... 102 seats or so.

That is obviously a big "if." But right now I think we should probably be looking at the third column for hints.

Watch Baron Hill in IN-9. Two reasons: One, Baron Hill got into shit with Town Hall protesters over the summer of 09.

Two: a Baron Hill defeat signals a Big Wave. (But not the Super Wave-- for the Super Wave, we need a harder opponent to fall.)

If Baron Hill wins, we'll actually know we're heading for either just a small Wave or a big wave but probably not a Super Wave.

(Thanks to Drew for that.)

This is the main thread for IN and KY races. Constantly updated and bumped as appropriate. Send tips about these races to aceofspadeshq, which is on the google mail server.





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