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November 02, 2010

Dick Morris Says Reports of Republican Turnout are "Unbelievable" and Democrat Turnout "Underwhelming"
Enthusiasm Gap Strikes in VA-8;
Could Brookline Be About To Elect Sean Bielat?

Update: Dick Morris says we're heading for an "unbelievable landslide," based on reports from the ground all over the country.

For a week I've gotten some downer emails from a VA-8 voter calling Patrick Murray's bid to unseat Jim Moran. Can't happen. Impossible. The district is too bright blue, filled, as it is, with people who work directly for the federal government and/or the permanent bureaucratic political para-government of fundraisers, consultants, and issue-advocacy types.

Today he voted... and reports that Democrats aren't showing up.

I've been voting here in Arlington for 15 years, alternating between morning and afternoon based on my gut feelings about turnout. I voted at 8 am this morning in South Arlington, bluest part of a blue county... I've *never* seen a polling place emptier. I still don't see Murray having a serious chance-- this is Arlington, FFS-- but he *may* have a chance in Hell, depending on turnout... Fingers crossed!

And in "bluer than blue" Brookline, MA...

For 25 years I’ve lived in Brookline, where Republicans admit they’re Republicans at their own risk. Yet I haven’t seen so many lawn signs for a Republican since a few courageous matrons put a “Weld for Governor” placard on their lawn in 1990 and paid the price: social suicide. They were promptly shunned at Whole Foods. Their poor children sat alone in the cafeteria.

It says something huge about Barney Frank’s fall from grace that a few brave Brookline-ites are ready, again, to risk their neighbors’ wrath.


Here’s what I’m seeing: a few dozen small and discreet Bielat signs, mostly in South Brookline on the West Roxbury line, where there’s more diversity. That is, you can actually question Al Gore’s prediction that the Cape will be underwater by 2025 and not be jettisoned from The Great Books Club.

Don't worry if that doesn't seem big enough -- MA-4 includes more than Brookline, and in Newton, for example, there are more Bielat signs than Frank signs.


Simple proposition: We turn out, they don't -- it doesn't matter what the partisan advantage is in any district. If they don't bother to vote, and we vote like the Republican depends on it, we win.

Gallup: 19 Point Enthusiasm Gap, The Biggest Advantage Since They've Measured: At Hot Air:

The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans’ heightened excitement — 63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats’ expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party’s supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

Ten points higher than the previous biggest gaps and apparently peaking at just the right time.

And on that: Christine O'Donnell outdraws Biden 5-to-1 in rallies (also at Hot Air).

O'Donnell is not as much of a longshot as some of the people I'm pushing, so yeah, she can win too. It will take very high conservative turnout and dispirited Democrat turnout, but that is our formula to success this year overall.


And In Republican Precincts in Illinois...

Big turn-out at my polling place, which is in reliably Republican Oak Brook in reliably Republican DuPage County in reliably crooked Illinois. I've never seen the place that busy; waiting lines for both the booths and the Diebold-Cheney Vote Fraudutrons. With any luck Alexi Gianoulis is wearing orange and picking up litter in six months. And not as a US senator, either.

Thanks to Sort of Mad Max.






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