« Boehner's Closing Argument: The President Of The United States Of America Shouldn't Be Calling Citizens "Enemies" | Main | PPP: Joe Miller Up By Seven »
November 01, 2010

Jim Geraghty: I Predict +70 Seats, And I'm Being Conservative;
Jay Cost: Gamma Rays Are Pushing Me Into Hulk Mode And I'm Citing (Without Endorsing) a Prediction of +76

Geraghty's come up with a prediction he calls conservative, calling for Republicans to flip 76 seats and Democrats to flip 6 (!!?!), for a net of +70.

I'm not really sure why he thinks the Democrats will flip six. Three, maybe? But he is, as he says, erring on the side of caution. Update: Here's the actual list of every House prediction. All 435.

Jay Cost again makes the point that Gallup's congressional generic has been very accurate since 1994 (more accurate than any other poll) and furthermore has no real partisan skew. (In three of four years, it has actually skewed Republican by about a point.)

[T]here has really only been one pollster in 15 years that has not exhibited a systematic partiality, and that is the Gallup poll. This was my point last week, that the Gallup final likely voter generic ballot number is extremely accurate. And as you can see it is more accurate, on average, than any other poll. In fact, it’s even substantially more accurate than an average of all the other final likely voter polls. In three out of four years, tossing out all the other polls and following only Gallup would have gotten you closer to the actual result.

This suggests, in turn, that our best approach to minimizing error when it comes to predicting the final popular vote spread is to favor heavily Gallup’s final likely vote projection.

Indeed, a regression analysis conducted by Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz suggests an extremely close fit between what Gallup predicts and what the final result will be.

...

A victory of 15 points suggests Republican gains well in excess of my previous estimate of 61 seats. The Abramowitz model suggests a pickup of about 76 seats, but I wouldn’t take that at face value.

His caution is that this is unprecedented so it is outside the usual parameters of modeling. He'll be making his actual prediction tomorrow (before voting begins, I trust!).

Abramowitz (the analyst he cites) offers a chart which tops out at a +68 seat gain, if Republicans have +12 in the national popular vote.

FWIW, and it's not worth much, my own current prediction is 70+, emphasis on the plus.

The Plural of Anecdote is Not Data But It Still Is Information: Geraghty
notes an AoS reader's report from last night about the serious electricity in the Patrick Murray camp in VA-8 and confirms, there are barely any Jim Moran signs in this heavily Democratic DC suburban area.

Then he starts singing show tunes.

Geraghty also smells desperation in CA-51, where incumbent Filner has launched a completely-disproven (and immediately so) negative attack against Nick Popaditch. Why would he do that, if he weren't in trouble? The negative charge was kinda lame to begin with (Popaditch hasn't voted in 11 years!), plus Popaditch had a pretty good excuse (Hey, sorry, when I was recovering from my grievous injuries sustained while defending the country I didn't manage to vote), and wasn't even true-- Popaditch immediately proved he had voted in every election, even when he was in combat or convalescing from injuries sustained thereby.

So what is this? Why would Filner toss such a lame grenade right into his own tent?


digg this
posted by Ace at 01:36 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone famil ..."

Sandra F.: "[i]That means they're really being hard if Jimmy c ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "Are we now lactophilia intolerant? Posted by: buz ..."

Lost Shaker Assault: "I've been a chef, cook, and restaurant manager 35 ..."

Donna&&&&V sez: Sorry Tribe fans. Go Astros!: "Not entirely OT, here is a vid of some sane - and ..."

Cosmic Charlie: "Tina Weymouth was extraordinary ..."

buzzsaw90: "One word: lactophilia. And celebrity chefs. Pu ..."

filbert: "[i]"Diversity" by itself is valueless. A bucket of ..."

Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "508 Let's face it, diversity is weakness, straight ..."

colfax mingo: "Eromero, Not a poet, but not a bullshitter eith ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "It starts with lactophilia, then, the pudding. ..."

publius, the Persistent Poperin Pear: " Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone fa ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64