Is RCP Fallible? UPDATE: I Guess Not

[Covering CO, WY, and UT]

UPDATE: 12:50 - Counting in the Buck race seems to have slowed to a crawl, so I'm going to sign off. Sorry for the late start. Have a great night, everybody.

UPDATE: 12:39 - I see NBC projects 243 GOP seats in the House - a gain of 65.

UPDATE: 12:34 - Ahhh - no joy in Utah. 100% of precincts in, and Matheson beats Philpot by 5%.

UPDATE: 12:28 - Several commenters have been prodding me to say something about the Philpot (R) - Matheson (D) race in Utah's 2nd District. I ignored them because I trusted RCP, who had said that race "Leaned Democrat." But Philpott leads by 1 point with 65% of precincts reporting!

UPDATE: 12:24 - That was fast. Buck's lead drops to 5900.

UPDATE: 12:22 - Buck leads by 9500 w/70% of precincts reporting. News teams say that future votes come from both rural and metro precincts, so it could still swing either way.

UPDATE: 12:09 - They finally called it for Tipton (R)! This means that RCP called it exactly right for all of the races in UT, WY, and CO. No surprises, except for the "toss-ups." According to Google the GOP has 232 seats in the House, a gain of 56.

UPDATE: 11:39 - Buck opens up lead to 10,000! If Buck ends up ahead despite the Boulder shenanigans, and if he can win by more than 0.5%, then we could get unfritzed. (...and Tipton maintains lead with 79% of precincts reporting)

UPDATE: 11:31 - Tipton (R) still leads Salazar by 6%, with 75% of precincts reporting. They can't call this already?

UPDATE: 11:17 - The news teams are flailing for an explanation, but it appears that the Boulder County Clerk AP mistakenly put votes for Bennet in Buck's column. Now they've corrected it. This will certainly mean that the results of this race will be in a legal quagmire for some time. Buck and Bennet at 48% and 47%, respectively.

UPDATE: 11:10: Buck and Bennet tied at 47% [Buck leads by 4000 out of 1.3 million votes] {Kind of weird: Buck used to have 657K votes, now they have him at 641K - I'm getting these numbers from KDVR.biz: did they screw something up?}

UPDATE: 11:06 - Dan Maes has 11% of the gubernatorial vote, preventing the GOP from being rated as a "minority party" in the next election.

UPDATE: 10:46 - Buck at 49%, Bennet at 46%!!

UPDATE: 10:17 - Buck at 47.1%, Bennet at 47.6%

UPDATE: Buck within 3 points at 10:15 Mountain time. Apparently polls are still open in El Paso County, a source of strong support for Buck.

UPDATE: Wyoming gets a well-deserved Republican governor in a result that was completely expected.

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Getting a late start here. I went down to the Colorado Republican Election Night event, but could never get an internet connection. So, after several hours of sunk time, I returned home, and here I am.

And an ugly place it is. In the gubernatorial race, Democrat John Hickenlooper beats Tancredo and Maes. Perlmutter (D) beats Frazier. Both of races had been rated as a "toss-up" by Real Clear Politics, but the Dems won early and by a significant margin.

Not a good sign. In the Senatorial race, Buck (R) trails by 5%. I hope that race has a better outcome, but it was also a toss-up.

On a brighter note, Salazar (D) is looking weak against Tipton (R), and Markey (D) lost to Gardner (R) in races that were rated "leans GOP" by RCP. So at least we're winning the races we though we should win.

posted by Geoff at 02:31 AM

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