Overnight Open Thread | Main | Brown pulling ahead of Whitman
October 25, 2010

*updated with winner*CAC's Mini-Contest: Name PPP's polling numbers before Jensen does

Hey, if they can "process" their numbers, certainly you morons can beat 'em to it!

So here is the deal.
Tom Jensen has a thrill up and down all eight of his legs right now over his California Gov and Senate polls, seems to be developing one for Manchin in West Virginia, and has constantly shown Buck down even when everyone else gave him an edge (before his er...interesting recent comments). He will probably throw a bone to us for Kentucky, but pah. So...


I (CAC) will personally send an e-gift card for Rifftrax to the tune of $5.00 (enough for a flick and a short) for whomever gets closest to Jensen's "results" he will be releasing soon for:
KY Senate
CO Senate
CO Gov
CA Gov
CA Senate
WV Senate

Very simple entry:
List all six, pick Jensen's "winner" and by how much (for Colorado list Tancredo ) or if you feel bold the %'s (which yield a margin anyway)

Winner will be determined the following way-
Moron/moronette who nails all 6 of Jensen's poll winners gets the gift certificate.
Tiebreaker:
If more than one of you pick all of Jensen's winners (and as predictable as he has been I suspect that will happen), then we will go by what your prediction of Jensen's winner margin will be (You must pick all 6 winners first, nailing 5 of them with the right margin but predicting the wrong overall winner on the last is worthless- as with elections, being off by 1 means nothing if you still lost. Particularly this year.)

Tiebreaker #2:
In the event that two different morons post the exact same numbers and winners, then whomever posted it first here. Contest closes when Jensen releases his FIRST poll number.

If we are going to laugh at his polls, lets have some fun with it!
I will name the winner once all of Jensen's poll results are posted on his polling firm's blog. You MUST have your picks in before Jensen posts the first of these results.

UPDATE- PPP began releasing with Colorado numbers this morning, entry is closed.
UPDATED- ACTUAL PPP polls (note that California used a sample size larger than even the registration figures for the state, throw it in with the LA/USC and Suffolk turd pile):
*updated below 10/26*
Kentucky Senate PPP ACTUAL Paul 53- Conway 40
California Senate PPP ACTUAL Boxer 52- Fiorina 43
California Governor PPP ACTUAL Brown 53- Whitman 42
Colorado Governor PPP ACTUAL Hickpooper 47 Tancredo 44
Colorado Senate PPP ACTUAL- TIED AT 47
West Virginia Senate PPP ACTUAL Manchin 50 Raese 44

EVERYBODY missed colorado because it ended a tie.
So I will go by the morons who nailed the most RIGHT winners out of 6
Morons who nailed 5 of 6:
Apologetic California, Just Another Poster, Doc, Rocks, JC

Now who came closest to Jensen with their numbes:
AC scored an average error of 5.8, nailed CA Senate margin
JAP scored an average error of 5.0, nailing none exactly but only off 1 on 2 races.
DOC scored an average error of 5.0, nailed WV Sen margin exactly.
Rocks scored an average error of 5.2
JC scored an average error of 4.0

JC, your nickname is PPP Chief Analyst now and enjoy your prize.

digg this
posted by CAC at 02:30 AM

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