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September 20, 2010

Hmmm... Obama Underwater in Delaware

Editor had just written to me:

Pretty soon, ace, you'll be full fledged "yeah, this is going to be a tsunami so big that we could run a half gallon of soured milk against [insert preferred Dem candidate] and win handily."

I was going to write, Hey, maybe, but Obama's not that unpopular in Delaware.

But instead of writing that I looked it up. He's not super-unpopular, but he is unpopular.

The Democratic polling firm PPP has released the results of a new survey showing pro-abortion President Barack Obama fares worse in terms of his approval rating in key presidential states than he did in 2008, when he was elected.

Obama's approval rating there is now under water in Delaware at 46% happy with the job he's doing and 48% disapproving.

"That's a pretty amazing drop in a state where he won 62% of the vote," the polling firm said.

"It's just the most dramatic example of something plaguing Democratic candidates in all of this year's most competitive Senate races though," PPP's Tom Jensen said. "There's not much doubt that Barack Obama is the biggest reason why most of these blue state Senate races are looking so competitive and getting 15-20% of the vote from people who disapprove of Obama is going to be critical to the victory chances of many of these Democratic candidates."

As everyone on the Castle side of things says, pretty much, we never disagreed that Castle pretty much sucked or that it would be preferable, if possible, to put O'Donnell into that seat, flaws notwithstanding. (We have a lot of flawed Senators.) The argument was whether it was possible. Well, it was always possible; the argument was over whether it was longshot/darkhorse possible or more like coinflip possible.

If it's coinflip possible, then my caution and pessimism will have been proven wrong, regardless of the outcome of the race, because, I didn't think it was coinflip-possible. I thought it was longshot-possible. If I had known it was coinflip possible, I would have said, "Yeah, flip that coin."

I'm not sure it is coinflip possible or ever will be, but I have to say I thought, incorrectly, that Obama was over 50% in Delaware, like 51 or 52%.

At 46%, with a major enthusiasm gap...? I don't know if it's coinflip possible but it may be better than longshot possible.


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posted by Ace at 01:28 PM

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