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September 12, 2010

PPP: O'Donnell Leading Castle In Delaware Delaware GOP Senate Primary

Well, this just got (even more) interesting.

It looks like there’s a real possibility of a major upset in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday night, with insurgent conservative Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.

If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. Castle has an overwhelming 69-21 lead with moderate voters but they only make up 33% of the likely primary electorate. O’Donnell has a 62-31 lead with conservatives that’s more than enough to propel her to the overall lead.

It’s clear that Castle’s popularity has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction over the last month. An August PPP poll found his favorability with Delaware Republicans at a 60/25 spread. Now his favorables within the party are negative at 43/47. That’s largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he’s too liberal compared to 37% who think he’s about right.

...General election Senate numbers we'll release later this week make it clear the biggest beneficiary of this primary becoming so unexpectedly hotly contested is Chris Coons. He would start out with a large advantage over O'Donnell in a general election match up, and is polling closer to Castle than he was when PPP polled Delaware last month.

Not sure what's left to say that hasn't already been said at this point (though that doesn't mean someone won't have something else to say about it tomorrow).

On the upside...it'll all be over one way or another on Tuesday.

Okay, one new thought...RCP has one poll on the House race in Delaware (from PPP in early September) shows the Democrat leading the two possible GOP candidates by 16 and 18 points.

Why does anyone think a state that is going to elect a Democrat to the House this year really wants to send a hardcore conservative about whom there are a lot questions to the Senate?

Remember, Delaware has one house seat, so it's the same electorate. Do you really think they are going to split their ticket for a Democrat and O'Donnell? This is probably one of 3 or 4 Democratic pickups in the House this year but on the other hand they are just dying to send a Palin/DeMint backed candidate to the Senate?

How does that make any sense?

*I corrected the headline. Technically it is a tie since it's within the margin of error but O'Donnell is leading.


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posted by DrewM. at 10:22 PM

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