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September 01, 2010

Rasmussen: Nation's Partisan Split at... 1.2%

This isn't unprecedented, but Rasmussen hasn't found it this close since 2005, which was, I guess, the peak of post-9/11 Republican affiliation before the steep drop off which followed.

It's good. It's good.

In August, 35.0% of American Adults identified themselves as Democrats. Thatís down nearly half a percentage point from a month ago and is the smallest percentage of Democrats ever recorded in nearly eight years of monthly tracking.

At the same time, the number of Republicans grew in August to 33.8%. Thatís up two full percentage points from the month before and the largest number of Republicans recorded in 2010.

As has been the case in every month over the past eight years of tracking, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. The gap is currently 1.2 percentage points. Thatís the closest the Republicans have been to parity in more than five years, since July 2005.

Itís also the smallest gap between the parties heading into any of the recent campaign seasons....

The biggest advantage ever measured for Democrats was 10.1 percentage points in May 2008. In December 2008, the final full month of the Bush administration, the Democrats held an 8.8-percentage-point advantage.

Even with that 8.8% advantage, in a huge-turnout-for-energized-Democrats year, they could only parlay that to a 4% or 5% advantage in actual votes.

What happens when it's at parity? Wonderful things, wonderful things.

From Captain Ed, who notes that this gets at one of his pet peeves -- the seven, eight, ten, eleven point Democrat advantage "mainstream" media pollsters tend to build into their "forecasts." (Actually -- wishcasts.)

Random Rassmussen Good News: Pennsylvania Governor's contest moves to "Solid GOP," even though currently held by D.

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posted by Ace at 06:08 PM

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