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July 28, 2010

Damn: NV Senate Race Moved From "Toss Up" To "Leans Democratic" By...Hitler's Own Pollster

I suppose something the keeps Chuck Shumer or Dick Durbin out the majority leader's spot isn't all bad. Hey, I'm trying to find the pony in the pile of crap here.

While Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is barely ahead of challenger Sharron Angle, the fact that he has the advantages of incumbency and that Barack Obama won the state by twelve percentage points helps tip the balance towards the incumbent.

With three months to go, Rasmussen Reports polling shows that Republicans are poised to pick up Democratic-held Senate seats in three states— Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota. Two others are leaning that way--Delaware and Pennsylvania. Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln is the only incumbent senator currently projected to lose a seat. The others are open-seat races following retirements by Democratic incumbents.

At the moment, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column.

Currently, there are just six states in the Toss-Up category. Outside of the Toss-Ups, projections indicate that Democrats can probably count on having 50 Senate seats after Election Day, while Republicans will hold 44.

This will of course ignite a chorus of 'the tea party is killing the Republicans!' stories in the MFM and the leftysphere.

I think it's pretty clear that Angle is not the ideal candidate for Nevada.

What’s hurting the Republican? For starters, an astounding 58 percent find Angle’s positions “extreme.”

Yeah, that's not good.

There's no need to indict the whole tea party movement as 'too extreme' or on balance bad for Republicans but like any mass movement, it's going to come with some baggage and what appeals to the base isn't going to appeal to everyone. Also, let's not kid ourselves, Sue Lowden didn't turn out to be the greatest candidate ever either. Still, she was the safer choice and probably wouldn't suffer from 58% of Nevadans saying she was too extreme.

Before we start killing Republican primary voters, let's remember that the professionals in Washington are the folks that were touting the likes of Arlen Specter and Charlie Crist right up until the moment they bailed on the party.

Still, there is no denying that Reid is/was in a desperately weak position and the Republican's choice of candidates may cost them not only a pick up in a purple state but a nice trophy scalp as well.

BTW- His son Rory, who doesn't appear to have a last name, is still getting killed in the race for Governor.

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posted by DrewM. at 01:07 PM

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