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The historical development of the recovery in the DOW in 1930 ended with a new head and shoulder pattern. This was followed by a rapid market decline that created the first part of a long term double dip pattern. This retreat also exceeded the pattern projection targets with a fall of 28%.
Fast forward to today, we're seeing the Dow is developing a new head and shoulder pattern which indicates a beginning of a bear market. The rally peaks in the Dow appear in January and May and June. The downside projection taken from the neckline of the pattern sets a target at 8,400, or a 25% decline.
A very bearish analysis using the pattern of retreat behavior in 1930 suggests the Dow could retreat to around 7,500 in 2010.