Poll: Rossi Edges Patty "Dum-Dum" Murray Among Registered Voters

Just barely -- 42-39% -- but 39% is not where an incumbent wants to be.

Before you say, "Well, if he's up among registered voters, he must really be up with likely voters!" -- that's actually not the case here. The typical pattern is reversed:

Murray still retains her overall edge among likely voters, those who voted in the 2006 mid-term election. Forty six percent of them said they would vote for the three-term Democratic incumbent, compared to 40 percent for Rossi. And the combined results of all 1,695 registered voters polled during four weeks in May showed Murray edging out Rossi 42 percent to 40 percent.

I think -- but don't know -- that what's gone on here is this: There was polling over four weeks' time, with around 450 people interviewed each poll. The last group interviewed, the most recent, went for Dino Rossi, due to recent publicity/changing opinions. Overall, they still went a bit for Murray.

As for likelies -- I think the likely voters are taken from the entire four weeks of polling, the good-for-Rossi last poll and the bad-for-Rossi earlier polls.

Assuming this isn't just a glitch, but represents a real trend, then it should be the case, as expected, that the next poll of likely voters puts Rossi ahead.

Thanks to Jenjhis.

posted by Ace at 09:37 PM

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