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May 25, 2010

WSJ: double-dip

Doh. Everyone knows what happens after you've been on a bender doing punch bowls full of the finest Hells Angles crank and Peruvian marching powder.

...Meanwhile, in America bank lending continues to decline as does the velocity of money in circulation. If this persists, markets will face worryingly low GDP growth in the U.S. going into 2011. It's this prospect that's begun to be discounted in the recent stock-market correction, which has already seen the S&P 500 give up all its gains for the year. This will sooner or later pave the way for another round of fiscal easing in Washington when both the Obama administration and Congress give up on their current hopes of a normal U.S. recovery...

...A trade row between China and the U.S. on top of the growing concerns about a "double dip" in the West is the last thing markets will want to contend with. But they may have to.

The notion that we'd have a "normal recovery" was always naive/foolish to begin with, as were the stock prescriptions that came out of Washington, because this was not, and is not a "normal" recession by any historical recession standards.


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posted by Purp at 11:54 AM

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