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April 21, 2010

Poll: Crist Isn't Doing Too Well With Democrats or Independents, Either

Damned either way?

It's his fall with Republicans that gets all the attention, but Charlie Crist's poll numbers have declined almost as badly with Democrats and independents over the last year as they have within his own party. And that makes me doubt he would be successful in an independent Senate bid even if he did decide to make a run for it.

Comparing Quinnipiac's April 2009 poll to its poll this month Crist's approval rating has dropped 19 points with Republicans, from 68% to 49%. But it's also dropped by 18 points with independents from 68% to 50% and by 14 points with Democrats from 66% to 52%.

Right now Crist gets 30% of the Republican vote and 27% of the Democratic vote if he runs as an independent. But it's important to keep in mind that 61% of Democrats don't know enough about Kendrick Meek to have formed an opinion of him yet- are Democrats who like Crist and don't know Meek today still going to vote for Crist this fall once they know Meek? Given the downward trend in his poll numbers among Democrats it seems like he would lose a lot of that support.

PPP says it's too early to write him off but his victory is "unlikely."

Someone wrote Crist's best polling day will be the day before he announces his switch. There's just no way to build a narrative that he's doing this "out of principle." Oh, he'll try that, but it's pretty obvious that no principle compelled him to leave the GOP when he was leading in party polls. It's only after the party rejects him that his independence and integrity compel him to reject the party in return.

Crist's switch will only reinforce the distaste voters have for him. It seems now he has no convictions or interesting political thinking, and is willing to do or say anything to goose his poll numbers a bit. Suddenly deciding he has to change parties -- and recast his positions to appeal to a different voter profile -- is going to turn that apprehension about him up to 11.

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posted by Ace at 03:30 PM

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