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I Heard A Great Joke Yesterday...Former NY Governor George Pataki Might Be Thinking Of Running For President! | Main | Gaia Is Trying To Kill Us
April 15, 2010

Economy surges, biggest jump in 5 years!

Oh....my bad, did I say "economy"? I meant to say foreclosures.

A record number of U.S. homes were lost to foreclosure in the first three months of this year...

...the number of U.S. homes taken over by banks jumped 35 percent in the first quarter from a year ago. In addition, households facing foreclosure grew 16 percent in the same period and 7 percent from the last three months of 2009...

..."We're right now on pace to see more than 1 million bank repossessions this year,"...In all, more than 900,000 households, or one in every 138 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice...

Lets do a little back of the envelope calculation here.

~1,000,000 foreclosures in the pipeline, right?

If the banks take say a 20% haircut blowing them out into an already soft market (I think this is very conservative figure), and they had maybe $150,000 left on the loans on average (also probably conservative), then someone gets clipped for $30,000+/unit.

That's a $30,000,000,000 (30 billion) kick in the balls to a bunch of institutions that aren't exactly a paragon of rock sold stability right now.

In reality, I suspect the losses can be doubled to tripled from my crude estimate in some markets. Many of those joints will be trashed/stripped needing major wiring/plumbing work to replace what was removed and scrapped and won't sell anywhere near a "modest" 20% loss.


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posted by Purp at 10:30 AM

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