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March 17, 2010

Five Different Whip Counts, And They All Conclude "It's Close But We Can't Say Either Way"

Allah runs down the counts, including one by our very own Gabe. It's close, and we don't know.

Here's a fresh one from Michael Barone, stating it's close, and we don't know.

The GOP health care count: 209 no, 204 yes, 18 undecided By: Byron York

Chief Political Correspondent

03/17/10 4:31 PM EDT


Of the 18 Democrats who are undecided, Republicans will have to win seven votes to prevail, provided Republicans do in fact have 209 votes now. The Democratic leadership would have to win over 12 undecideds, if in fact Democrats are at 204 now.

"If you're trying to win a vote like this, you never want to be in the situation where you have to get virtually everybody who's still left in the pool," says the source. "That's difficult. They have to get two-thirds, and that's a lot."

Over at Critical Condition, a somewhat more optimistic and more conclusory count:

With March Madness fast approaching, it's best not to have Obamacare going very far in your bracket. According to The Hill's projections about which way Democratic members are leaning — and assuming that non-leaning Democrats would vote the same way as last time — Obamacare would currently lose by a tally of 207 (yeas) to 224 (nays). (And that's even assuming that Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D., Ohio) will announce later this morning that, since the president was nice enough to ask him for his vote and to give him a ride in Air Force One, he'll support the bill.) Andy Wickersham and I have outlined the 40 key Democrats that Americans most need to contact and to whom they most need to make their voices heard. If all other Democrats vote the same way as they did before, while all Republicans vote against the bill as expected, then President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and company would need 27 of these 40 for Obamacare to be deemed the law of the land. However, according to The Hill, only 5 of these 40 are currently leaning "yes," while 12 are now leaning "no."

That outline of Democrats we need to contact is here.

I have a sinking feeling. I am afraid as most of you are that there's no such thing as a "moderate Democrat," merely a liberal Democrat who takes a few centrist positions on social issues or makes moderate noises on occasion.

I think they are calculating, as I've long worried, that they are going to lose either the independents or the liberals, so they might as well choose to go with the liberals, who both vote and donate to them.

I also think they see this as Reverse Reagan. Reagan's tax cuts permanently (?) changed what was or what was not possible in politics; liberals had to forever (?) reckon with the fact that very popular tax cuts were in place and this restricted their plans to spend our money.

If the Democrats pass this, it will be hard to get off the books -- at least until January 2012, and probably even then -- and will therefore permanently commit future generations to paying for this abortion. I mean, if it's a law on the books, and the Democrats filibuster all attempts to repeal it, even a fiscal-conservative Congress and President will, I imagine, be compelled by force of law to implement it and pay for it.

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posted by Ace at 04:45 PM

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