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February 10, 2010

Uh-Oh: Republicans Beating Democrats 48-45 on Generic Congressional in WashPost/ABC Poll

Video report at the link.

And Gallup just found it 45-45, with this warning to Democrats:

The closeness of the two parties over the past several months on this "generic ballot" measure is similar to that found in most Gallup readings from 1994 through 2005 (spanning the period when Republicans won control of the U.S. House and subsequently maintained it for more than a decade).

Closer to elections, Gallup bases its generic-ballot results on voters deemed most likely to vote. Because Republicans are generally more likely than Democrats to turn out to vote, particularly in midterm elections, their positioning improves by several points when the generic ballot is based on likely voters rather than registered voters. Thus, a tie between Democrats and Republicans among registered voters probably corresponds to a Republican lead among likely voters.

And there's an intensity gap, too:

While voter enthusiasm today is fairly high, overall, more than half of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) say they are 'more enthusiastic' about voting, compared with 41% of Democrats/Democratic leaners.

"Historic lows."

Voters have a 50% favorable/46% unfavorable view of the Dem party, its lowest rating in the same poll since '84, when Ronald Reagan won 49 states in a record-breaking landslide. Voters actually have a worse opinion of GOPers -- only 44% view the party favorably, compared with 52% who see them unfavorably. But the GOP has added 8 points to their popularity since the last time the question was asked, in Jun. '09.

First lead for the GOP on the Congressional Ballot question since '02, the article says, when Bush managed an unlikely midterm victory.


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