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January 29, 2010
Economy Grows At 5.7% Rate During 4th QuarterStronger than expected (economists are forever being surprised, aren't they?) and it the second straight quarter of growth signals the technical end of the recession. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, rose at a 5.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday. That is the highest pace of growth since 2003, and it constitutes strong proof that the recession reached its end earlier in 2009. It was also a surprisingly positive result, well above the 4.6 percent rate of GDP growth forecasters had expected. First, this is good news. Tempting though it may be to down play it, it was annoying when the left did it for 8 years and I'd hate to be in the position of rooting against the country's well being. That said, even the Washington Post is including caveats that the engine of this growth, the rebuilding of inventories, isn't likely to repeat itself. We may be looking at the front end of the double dip recession we've heard so much about. As always, jobs is a lagging indicator and the next report on that is due out in a week. The White House is obviously going to trumpet this number (though it is subject to revision) and they'll enjoy their day*. Still they have to walk a fine line between declaring "Mission Accomplished" (if you will) and the fact that a lot of people are still out of work and in tough shape. The WSJ has a round up of economists reacting to the report. From the less than excited end of the spectrum. # GDP growth broke to a level above expectations based primarily on stronger than anticipated inventory… While consumer spending, the housing markets, and export growth all played a role, the 3.4% contribution to headline growth from inventory expansions remains easily the biggest factor in today’s GDP release… Also note that much of the inventory improvement was limited to non-durable goods and the auto industry, the latter of which is building inventories with questionable short term sales prospects. This inventory-driven GDP number also calls into question the sustainability of this type of growth–there’s no reason to anticipate that inventories will continue to build aggressively with consumer spending remaining somewhat stagnant. –Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott On the more optimistic side... The 13.3% rise in equipment investment was the best since the first quarter of 2006. Equipment investment contributed 0.8 percentage point to GDP growth in the fourth quarter (0.5 point more than we had anticipated). The other big upside surprise was in foreign trade. This reflected a much smaller advance in imports than we had expected. The combination of stronger investment and weaker imports suggests that more of the upside in investment was fueled by domestically produced goods than we had assumed. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley *The White House blog is already on the case. | Recent Comments
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