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January 10, 2010
Yeah, That Globe Poll Looks Wrong
Karl explains the differences in the polls. The Globe poll polled only 83 independents -- not nearly enough for a decent sub-sample. PPP polled 290.
Fred Bauer notes the Globe's independents simply do not conform to other polls' findings about them.
I think a lot of the discrepancy between this poll and other polls boils down to the independents. According to this poll, the Registered Undeclared voters support Coakley over Brown 48-42. This number is wildly out of line with the recent polls released by Rasmussen and PPP, both of which show Brown leading handily with independents, winning at least 60% of their votes (Coakley hangs at between around 20% and 30% of independents). If, using all the other weighting methodologies of the Globe poll, you change the undeclared levels of support to 61% for Brown and 31% for Coakley (her highest number in the most recent polls), you come up with a 47-44 lead for Brown.
Yeah, but Rasmussen is Satan's Pollster.