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January 04, 2010

Economists: Chances of a Robust Recovery over the Whole Next Decade? Somewhere Between Grim and None

Ah, well. They can always call people racists. That should do the trick.

A dismal job market, a crippled real estate sector and hobbled banks will keep a lid on U.S. economic growth over the coming decade, some of the nation's leading economists said on Sunday.

U.S.

Speaking at American Economic Association's mammoth yearly gathering, experts from a range of political leanings were in surprising agreement when it came to the chances for a robust and sustained expansion:

They are slim.

Many predicted U.S. gross domestic product would expand less than 2 percent per year over the next 10 years. That stands in sharp contrast to the immediate aftermath of other steep economic downturns, which have usually elicited a growth surge in their wake.

If it's that bad, we might see the White House in the hands of one party, then the other, for single terms for a while.

On the other hand, I'm not really thinking past 2012 at the moment.

And Treasuries aren't performing.

Treasuries were the worst performing sovereign debt market in 2009 as the U.S. sold $2.1 trillion of notes and bonds to fund extraordinary efforts to bolster the economy and financial markets.

Investors in U.S. debt lost 3.5 percent on average through Dec. 30, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes, the biggest annual slide since at least 1978. The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in six months yesterday before a Labor Department report next week forecast to show payrolls were unchanged in December after the U.S. economy lost jobs in every month since January 2008.

“The financial system has survived,” said Ray Remy, head of fixed income in New York at Daiwa Securities America Inc., one of 18 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve. “Now the market has to deal with other issues like deficit spending, tremendous issuance, the weakness in the dollar. How significant is this recovery, and what happens when you take away some of the government stimulus.”


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posted by Ace at 12:56 PM

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