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December 22, 2009

Even More CBO: The Marketplace Response to Magical Thinking is Usually Unmagical

What's the real problem with a CBO score, their terrible arithmetic or their inability to answer the following question: "If we levy a gigantic tax on a sector of the marketplace, whatever would the marketplace do in response"?

The answer is "find a way to pay less of this crap". It's always that.

Don't get me wrong, their math sucks too.

The largest source of income for the amusingly named "cost-offsetting measures" is $149BB from "cadillac" insurance plans. Never heard of those? Don't worry about it. In ten years you'll never knew they existed.

I don’t think it takes a genius to figure out that within a couple of years, compensation packages will adjust so that nobody is paying that tax. No more Cadillac insurance plans.

This is entirely predictable, it's happned before. It doesn't take a genius, just a roomful of average "straight-line" analysts.


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posted by Dave In Texas at 01:20 PM

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