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December 10, 2009

More Homogenizin': CBS/NYT Poll Keeps Obama at 50%, Barely, By Homogenizing Sample With Poll of Helen Thomas' Ladies-Only Combination Book Club and Cat Fashion Revue
CNN: Dems are Screwed

Well, it's kind of like homogenizin', in the sense we are "adjusting" numbers based on what feels right. In this poll, CBS/NYT got 7% more Democrats than Republicans, and that didn't seem right to them... so they weighted the two so that the Democrats had a nine point edge.

Result? They keep Obama at 50%, and only that.

resident Obama’s job approval rating sits at 50 percent in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, the lowest level it has reached in CBS News polling.

...

In April, Mr. Obama’s approval rating was 68 percent. By August, it was down to 56 percent. It dropped to 53 percent last month before falling another three points in the latest poll.

...

Americans cite the economy as the issue most important to them, and on that issue the president’s approval rating has been in decline. It now sits at 47 percent, down two points from last month and down seven points from October.

I don't get the weighting. When Gallup says "We don't weight for party ID," I defend them, because their argument -- "Party ID is not fixed; it shifts frequently" -- seems sound.

When Rasmussen does weight, I also agree with that, because while party ID shifts, sometimes a poll just plainly gets too many of one party or the other, and some weighting seems in order.

What I don't get is when a poll shows a 7% party ID advantage for Democrats, which is actually higher than Gallup's last poll indicated (they found a 6% advantage), and CBS/NYT decides to "correct" it... up to 9% advantage.

Next revelation: The GHCN temperature history for Seattle has been "homgenized" with CBS/NTY's polling. In the homogenization process, where the two completely different data sets are "averaged," both temperature and Democrat Party ID went up, and now, in fact, threaten to destroy the earth.

CNN Generic Ballot? Democrats By a Single Point. Oooofaaa.

And: opposition to ObamaCare hits 60%.

sen61.jpg

More at the link.


Giggle: Poll finds Savior of Mankind preferred by narrow margin, 50%-44%, over the Prince of Lies George Bush.


digg this
posted by Ace at 02:50 PM

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