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| You Know What I Want for Christmas? A Historic Prime-Time Interview at the White House of Lord Barack Obama by Queen Oprah »
November 25, 2009
Polls, Polls, Polls: Rasmussen Says in Hypoethetical Three-Way Match-Up, Independent Lou Dobbs Throws Race to Obama; Obama Continues FallingConfirmation of Allah's theory -- theory? common sense, I'd call it -- that an independent bid that draws from the right will put Obama back in office from 2013 to 2017. He quotes Groundskeeper Willie: I warned ye. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that if the choice is between President Obama, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Dobbs, Obama leads 42% to 34% with Dobbs pulling 14% of the vote. Note how close Palin is. Actually, everyone's close (and I imagine Pawlenty and other lesser-known, unpolled names would fare just as well), but it's a bit of good Thanksgiving news for the Palinistas that she's only behind Captain Wonderful by 3 points. Assuming no third-party bid, I mean. In other poll news: Yesterday Obama logged his lowest level of support yet in Rassmussen -- 45% support, 55% opposition. That changes slightly today -- 46% to 54% -- meaning that Obama's new normal is the mid-forties, and 40% his likely new bottom. And, as they say, 40 is the new 30. (Well, I say that. Actually I say 40 is new 26 but no one will believe me.) The rest of the news is bad too: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15. This is the second straight day at -15, the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for President Obama (see trends). 61% of independents now disapprove of Obama. 61%. That's some serious stuff right there. 38% approve, which is not exactly awful, but it's certainly not good. Not a poll but a forecast: 2012 is projected to have a very bad unemployment rate of 7.5%. The unemployment rate will remain elevated for years to come, according to a forecast released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve that addresses for the first time economic conditions at the time of the next presidential election. But that's not necessarily doom for Obama. Bear in mind, by that point, people will have adjusted to 10-11% unemployment (17-20% real unemployment) as the new normal. Any improvement from there will be welcome -- and Obama will get the odd "credit" of getting us an unemployment rate of "only" 7.5%. Yes, Obama will be rewarded for his own incompetence, the same he's been his whole life. He will be vulnerable in this scenario, but hardly doomed. Bear in mind, although the economy was growing in 1996, it wasn't nearly firing on all cylinders, and was still weak-ish. And yet, simply for having a growing economy -- not a barnburner, as we'd later see in 1998-1999 -- Clinton was considered well-nigh undefeatable in 1996. I gotta be honest: I didn't even vote. It was clear to me fairly early in the season that Clinton's growing, but not hardy, economy was good enough to almost guarantee him a victory in 1996. We didn't make much of a case for ourselves with Bob Dole, but he was a small factor. As they say, the election was a referendum on the incumbent, primarily, and with a bit of economic growth, people decided they'd stick with what was working. No one will be happy with a 7-8% unemployment rate. But given an easing of the 11% unemployment rate -- and who knows, maybe it will get up to 12% -- people will be at least appeased. And Obama will have the media crowing about the "economic miracle" of Obama delivering us an economy that hearkens back to the days of bread and honey of the Ford Administration. Vulnerable in 2012, yes. But we will need a strong candidate, and yes, we will need a lot of those hated moderates and independents people are always telling me apparently don't count in electoral politics. Not saying we need to sell-out to them, but we will need them on board. | Recent Comments
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"Somehow Az has only counted 61%? What a pathetic p ..."
[/i] [/s] [/u] [/b]An Observation sez China Joe not my president: "If Lavrentiy Beria Jr over at the DOJ knows what i ..." Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden: "[i]AZ PDT up 100k with 61% in. Posted by: rhenni ..." RedMindBlueState[/i][/b][/s][/u]: "[i]I'm encouraged to see the left making excuses f ..." [/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "Where can I find a fairly complete list of all the ..." Johnny Gunz: "I'm glad ammo prices won't be going through the ro ..." SMOD, I grew up in a middle-class constellation: "I fully expect somebody to claim that Trump has al ..." I used to have a different nic: "[i]Screwing over RFK Jr turned out to be a massive ..." rhennigantx: "AZ PDT up 100k with 61% in. ..." steevy: "So, how drunk (high)to do you think Kamala got las ..." J.J. Sefton : "stax edwards. GOODFELLAS ..." [/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "Their campaign died in the womb. ------- It's ju ..." Recent Entries
Mid-Morning Art Thread
The Morning Report 11/6/24 Daily Tech News 6 November 2024 The 47th President Addresses a Grateful Nation FOX NEWS NOW CALLS WISCONSIN FOR TRUMP FOX DECLARES TRUMP THE 47th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES! CNN, CBS Finally Call PA FOX CALLS PENNSYLVANIA TRUMP IS THE 47th PRESIDENT ELECTED TO LEAD THE UNITED STATES CNN Calls Georgia for Trump Harris Sends Out Campaign Co-Chair to Tell Staff to Go Home, Kamala Will Not Be Talking Tonight Republicans Winning Senate Races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin -- Three FLIPS from D to R MORENO DEFEATS THREE-TERM INCUMBENT SHERROD BROWN IN OHIO TIPP Head Pollster: It's a Clean Sweep. Trump Will Win All Seven Battlegrounds. Kamala Sends Staff Home NYT: Trump Is Running a Pick Six Search
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