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October 29, 2009

Daily Kos Poll: Hoffman's Behind by One, Which Means... Um, Hoffman's Winning

It's a Daily Kos poll. Although it's of course partisan and we can rightly suspect a lot of client-appeasing massaging goes into the poll, it's not so biased that we can or should write it off entirely. The Kos poll wasn't too far off in 2008, mostly. Not exactly super-accurate, but neither was it laughably off-base.

The poll has Owens up by one at 33, and Hoffman behind by one at 32.

Which means -- well, look. The people doing the poll understand who their client is, don't they? I take this to mean that the sample is skewed for best-case-scenario for the Democrat, and that Hoffman is really now the frontrunner by a slim 3 point margin.

Scoffa- Scozza -- Scozzo -- whatever her name is, which I've never really learned to spell, and hopefully will soon be able to stop spelling altogether, is fading at 21.

Allah has an interesting theory, by the way: He thinks Scozzablahblah's support is now mostly liberals, or liberal-leaners, who would be inclined to vote for Owens, mostly, were she to drop out of the race completely; so he thinks, perversely, the Scozzer is actually helping Hoffman in this race by dividing the liberals between two candidates, and allowing the conservative to sneak a win with only a third of the electorate.

We're probably never going to see numbers proving or disproving that, but it's not a bad theory.

Meanwhile, 15 prominent conservatives (like Ed Meese, those type guys) have signed a letter urging conservatives to support Hoffman. Which I have to think they already do, but it's a nice enough gesture.

Via Hot Air.







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