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October 27, 2009

State of the Races

One week to go and here are the latest polls I could find on some important races.

Virginia Governor: Robert McDonnell (R) vs. Creigh Deeds (D). The WaPo editorial staff must be gnashing their teeth after their absolute failure to sink McDonnell with another "macaca" moment. He's up 11 with likely voters: 55 percent to 44 percent. (Is there not a single undecided likely voter in Virginia?)

New Jersey Governor: Chris Christie (R) vs. Jon Corzine (D). After an alarming poll over the weekend showing Corzine in the lead and outside the margin, Rasmussen's latest release has this race back in familiar territory. Christie is up 3 among likely voters at 46 percent, possibly because spoiler Chris Daggett is shedding support. Corzine is at 43 percent, which puts this race within the margin of error.

New York 23rd Congressional District: Doug Hoffman (C) vs. Bill Owens (D) vs. Dede Scozzafava. The latest in the 23rd is the weak Club for Growth poll which only sampled 300 likely voters and a disproportionate number of Republicans. It may be a better indicator of where Republicans are going (away from Scozzafava as fast as their feet can take them) than the ultimate outcome of the race. Scozzafava and Hoffman are still splitting the Republican votes in this normally Republican district. According to the Club for Growth, a full 22 percent of likely voters still haven't decided who they are going to vote for next week.

Maine Question 1: Whether to reject Maine's new marriage law allowing gays to be married. Among registered voters, the latest poll found 52.6 percent would vote against Question 1 — in other words, to keep the new marriage law — and 41.5 percent said they were likely to vote for Question 1 and the repeal. Six percent were undecided.

Washington Referendum 71: Whether to approve Washington's new "everything but marriage" domestic partnership law. Polling 500 likely voters, the latest poll shows approving the law is up with 53 percent. Those seeking to reject the law have 36 percent. The survey was commissioned by one of the groups seeking to approve the law, but is consistent with the other polls in this race.

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posted by Gabriel Malor at 09:45 AM

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