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September 04, 2009

Charlie Cook: "Wave Elections... Start Just Like This"

No true cowbell today as a spate of polls just came out, pegging Obama's support anywhere from 52-56. Interestingly the CNN poll, which had him at 56, is now at 53. Only Rasmussen shows under 50% support (at 47% again).


And yet: The trends.

Charlie Cook is a very respected and influential poll-watcher. His prediction? Pain, as Mr. T said.

Bleeding Independents
OBAMA'S AGENDA HAS FANNED FEARS THAT GOVERNMENT IS EXPANDING TOO FAR, TOO FAST.
by Charlie Cook
Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009 ...

Obama and Capitol Hill leaders don't need to worry too much about their modest drop in support from Democratic voters or the predictable drop on the Republican side. But top Democrats should be very frightened about the sharp drop in support among independents, because it could ultimately threaten their party's hold on the House and shrink their majority in the Senate.

...

For the seven weeks from mid-April through the first week of June, Obama's weekly Gallup Poll approval rating among independents ran in the 60-to-70 percent range. But in four of the past five weeks, it has been only in the mid-to-high 40s. Meanwhile, Democrats and liberals seem lethargic even though Republicans and conservatives are spitting nails and can't wait to vote.

...

With 14 months to go before the 2010 midterm election, something could happen to improve the outlook for Democrats. However, wave elections, more often than not, start just like this: The president's ratings plummet; his party loses its advantage on the generic congressional ballot test; the intensity of opposition-party voters skyrockets; his own party's voters become complacent or even depressed; and independent voters move lopsidedly away. These were the early-warning signs of past wave elections. Seeing them now should terrify Democrats.

Some premature celebration cowbell:


digg this
posted by Ace at 12:36 PM

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