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August 12, 2009

Obama Loses 19 Points with New Jersey Independents

Underwater with that group for first time: 45% support, 48% oppose. He's lost 19 points net (decreased support, increased opposition) this month.

Independent voters are even less impressed with Obama's handling of the economy: while Obama's overall rating on the economy is 52% approve/ 42% disapprove, with Independents in New Jersey it is reversed: 51% disapprove while 42% approve.

A small plurality of Independents (37%) think Obama's policies have helped the economy thus far (31% think they've hurt) but, interestingly, when asked to determine whether they believe the President's policies will help or hurt the economy "looking ahead," Independents tip slightly against Obama: 42% say his policies will hurt the economy, 39% say they will help.

Time was, back when some of you were knee-high to a June-bug, New Jersey was a swing state. It's not anymore, of course. It's nearly as liberal as Massachusetts.

This may or may not mean that Obama is about to lose true independents (those who don't lean either way). One could guess that many of NJ's independents are more liberal than the typical independent; on the other hand, it could be that NJ's independents are actually kinda conservative on most issues, but reject the Republican brand due to the national GOP stand on social issues. (NJ is, as many northeast states are, very socially liberal.) In which case, this would merely be another example of natural-but-reluctant Republicans turning against him.

Either way, it's not good for Obama. I very much doubt New Jersey will be in play on the national level anytime soon, but this could well be a weather-vane flip telling us that Obama's national support among independents is about to not only drop again, but drop significantly.

If that's the case, he's about to lose another 4% of his approval rating.

I would like to thank the NJ GOP for its splendid AstroTurfing operation, AstroTurfing several millions of voters who are now pretending to be disatisfied with Obama's performance.

Thanks to AHFF Geoff.

NJ In Play? While NJ is trending blue, YRM makes the case that it's not so far blue that it's lost.

NJ is in play if Obama ends up like Jimmy Carter in my opinion, we've actually put up fights there the last 16 years that it's become a solid blue state:

1992- Clinton takes it from Bush by 3 points and it's considered to this day by many to have been one of the states that Perot may have stolen from Bush

1996- Clinton easily wins NJ but w/ 53% of the vote, w/ Perot taking a good 8-9% of the vote

2000- Gore easily wins NJ w/ 56-57% of the vote

2004- Kerry wins NJ w/ only 53% of the vote w/ Bush putting up an impressive showing

2008- Obama easily wins NJ w/ 57% of the vote

i think we can make some gains in the state as the giovernor's race heats up w/ a unpopular democrat incumbent in Corzine and the recent take down of various corrupt political factions there that benefited dems

I guess it's not full-on liberal, but it does seem to have a solid 51% liberal majority.



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posted by Ace at 11:40 AM

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