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Obama's Decision Cycle: Not OODA, But PIDDLE | Main | "They're Between a Rock and a Hard Place:" Democrats Divided on Economy; Grim Unemployment Figures Suggest Need for Second Stimulus, But Their First Free-Spending Ineffectual Non-Stimulus Leaves the Nation Already Bankrupt
July 08, 2009

New Palin Poll Out, No Word on Trig's "REAL" Birthmother

I see this morning that the current USA Today/Gallup poll on Sarah Palin is being touted as BIG news by certain pundits, which confirms my long-held belief that 70% of American journalists don't know squat about statistics, and the other 43% are wobbly on reading comprehension.

The poll has the following numbers that caught my eye:

- 72% of Republicans could support her in a run for President.
- 70% of Democrats are "not at all likely" to support her.
- 39% of Americans (67% R, 18% D) said that she is in a strong position to pick the next Republican candidate. The number of "independents" agreeing with this position was 34%.
- 53% of the public says her coverage has been "unfairly negative", while 28% say its been "about right".
- 70% of the respondents say that their feelings about her have not changed because of her resignation.
- 19% of voters would "very likely" vote for her in 2012, while 24% said she was "somewhat likely" to get their vote.

Beats the hell out of me. The number that catches my eye is that 43% of the voters surveyed would be either "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote for her in 2012.

Forty-three percent. That's pretty good, considering that she's just been driven from office by frivolous ethics complaints and The Atlantic's ongoing investigation into her vagina. Forty-three percent gets you on the board. Forty-three percent isn't enough to WIN, but since the election is still 40 months away she has plenty of time to shore up those numbers IF she decides to run. Of course, disastrous moves by Team Palin could further erode this number. Like I just said, forty months is a long time.

That's the word we should all keep in mind here, people. IF. According to the poll, she is now perceived as a "kingmaker" by members of both parties. If that's the extent of her influence on the 2012 election, then she isn't exactly going to be relegated to sitting on the back porch shooting at beer cans with a BB gun for the next 3 years or so.

Another number from that poll that makes me think: 70% say that their opinion of her hasn't become more negative since the resignation. That could mean anything, because we don't know if those 30% who have become more negative were former "fanboys" who would still support her candidacy, or if it is Democrats who formerly thought of her as "Caribou Barbie" who now think that she's Evil Incarnate.

My quick summary of the poll: She's still got work to do to rehab her image, but the task is not as difficult as it appeared to be 4 days ago.

Discuss among yourselves....and play nice for God's sake.

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posted by Russ from Winterset at 01:08 PM

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