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June 15, 2009

Authors Claim in Washington Post that Ahmadinejad Really Was Winning 2-to-1 Before the Election; Article Refuted By Washington Post's Polling Blogger

The nonsense-- a claim the deeply unpopular Ahmadinejad was really ahead "by more than a 2-to-1 margin."

The fisking comes from the Washington Post itself, although it would be nice to see the WaPo more clearly highlight the fact their polling blogger debunks this piece. The WaPo does provide a link that says "For more on Iranian polling, see..." but don't say, more accurately, "Everything that guy just said is bullshit."

For one thing, their blogger notes, that poll dates from a month ago, before the spike in support for Mousavi. More critically:

More to the point, however, the poll that appears in today's op-ed shows a 2 to 1 lead in the thinnest sense: 34 percent of those polled said they'd vote for Ahmadinejad, 14 percent for Mousavi. That leaves 52 percent unaccounted for. In all, 27 percent expressed no opinion in the election, and another 15 percent refused to answer the question at all. Six Eight percent said they'd vote for none of the listed candidates; the rest for minor candidates.

An incumbent polling at 34% is likely to lose, even in a multiparty/parliamentary election. Undecided voters split 2 or 3 (or more) to 1 against the incumbent on election day. If you were happy with the incumbent, you'd express support for him in polls. You wouldn't say "I don't know."

It also occurs to me there aren't 2 or 3 million people rallying for Ahmadinejad.

And that 15% that's so afraid as to refuse to answer? Something tells me they weren't fans of Ahmadinejad.

Thanks to kdabear.


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posted by Ace at 07:14 PM

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