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May 08, 2009
Financial Times: Gee Willickers, It Turns Out the Economy Depends a Lot on Psychology and OptimismNote how the media is suddenly doing its patriotic job in trying to improve economic optimism: An influential Democrat who was also one of the world’s top-ten, highest-paid hedge fund managers last year thinks he knows which book is at the top of the White House reading list this spring: Animal Spirits, the powerful new blast of behavioural economics from Nobel prize-winner George Akerlof and Yale economist Robert Shiller. This is all obvious -- but why is the media suddenly willing to stop the drumbeat of negativity and (as Slu notes below) actually try to put a positive spin on the worst unemployment in 25 years? The answer is obvious; they want to help Obama, and they wanted to hurt Bush. Note that while the same phenomenon applies to both Democrats and Republicans -- talking up the economy actually has tangible effects on growth, and talking it down has real effects on contraction -- Republicans aren't allowed to talk up the economy. The media won't let them. The minute they say something nice about the economy, the media says they're "out of touch" and then runs a package showing all the bad or worrisome indicators, pushing out the word that the economy is on the edge of a cliff (or actually falling into the cliff). Thus undoing the good that was intended. A long time ago I came up with the idea of a "Republican tax" the media imposes on this country's economy when a president they don't like (a Republican, naturally, or Bill Clinton before he perjured himself). By constantly pushing a message of fear and uncertainty, the media actually restrains the economy under Republican rule. By how much? I don't know. At least a half percent of GDP growth, I figure, and maybe even 1 or 2 points. Obama now presides over an economy showing the worst numbers since the Great Depression, and yet the media wants to push the idea of "economic recovery." No shooting down Obama as "out of touch" when he suggests we're coming out of this, no endless repetition of all the downward-pointing indicators. Instead, a very high unemployment rate is spun as surprisingly good, and indicative, if anything, of our emergence from the recession. For the media, there's always a light at the end of the tunnel when their boy is in charge. There's no problem with the media accentuating the positive. I just wish they'd do it when a someone they didn't vote for is running the country. Economic problems impose real consequences on people in those times, too.
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