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November 04, 2008

More Exit Polls?: We're Losing. By a Little. Which Means...
Tip: Gawker's Polls are Wrong; Real Exits Show Much Bigger Margins for Obama

I've thrown a question mark up because this is Gawker claiming they have them, and Drudge disagrees on the PA number.

Even more caution than before.

As Geraghty says, "Don't get cocky, kid."

Where the exit polls claim we are. Minuses bad (we're down, supposedy), plus up:

PA: -4

VA: -2

NC: +2

FL: -1

OH: -1

I will remind everyone of that -- what was it? -- 16 20 point exit poll lead for Kerry in PA in 2004?

This year? 4 points. A smattering of 2 and 1 point leads in other must-win states.

McCain-Palin seems to be exceeding Bush's performance in red Ohio counties, too.

I would not set yourself up for heart-break.

I will tell you now, that it's sort of safe, that I have thought we'd lose, badly, for a month, and not a lot has changed that.

I am now changing my position to "There's a chance." But only to that.

There is a possibility these exit polls are better this year. Maybe not a lot better, but better. There's also the possibility that Republicans, who dodged exit pollsters in the past, are more willing to say "Hell no, I stand against the socialist and with John the War Hero, Sarah the Reformer, and Joe the Plumber."

So you can't simply write off our trailing in key states as a big pile of nothing at all.

However... it is a hell of lot better than I ever would have guessed.

Another Reminder: And this is mostly true-- I remember seeing this when I checked out my own blogging in 2004. Virginia was supposedly too close to call, and that surely was a bad sign for Bush--

Listen, morons-- Virginia was essentially called for Kerry in 2004 for the identical exit number. He lost by EIGHT AND A HALF FUCKING POINTS.

That's from, uh, "Bat Chain Puller." I don't even want to know.

Drudge Claiming... +15 in PA for Obama. Not sure if he has later information than Gawker, or what.

But then, exit polls showed a +20 Kerry edge in PA. Turned out Kerry won, but by 5 2.5 or so.

Exit Polls Are Still Crap... But I have a tip that they're not nearly as close as Gawker claims.

The actual exits, I'm told, do show the 15 point PA lead, plus substantial leads in many other battleground states.

Word from McCain: Florida in good shape, other swing states too close to call.

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