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November 02, 2008

Final Polls in Key States; It's Too Close to Call

These numbers have been out since this morning, but this is the first time I noticed:

The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he's below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.

Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5

As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.

I could live without the heavy emphasis on skin color.

Otherwise, things are looking pretty good. Several of those polls are within the margin of error, which means the candidates are at a statistical tie. Also, most people think undecideds are going to break strongly for McCain.

On exit polls: I suggest you reread Jack M.'s post from two weeks ago to prepare yourselves. Remember, the "enthusiasm gap" is going to seriously unbalance the exits. The media will be predisposed to call states for Obama earlier than would otherwise be the case.


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posted by Gabriel Malor at 11:09 PM

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