The Election Is Tonight

It is my opinion that Palin either does well or very well, thus reversing the general erosion of support for the ticket, or she fairs poorly, and pretty much dooms the ticket.

Palin was really the only reason we were ever ahead in the first place. We need her to be a positive factor to win. Not a nonfactor, and certainly not a net negative.

I hate to put so much on a single performance, but I think it's that important.

On the good side; A tie by Palin counts as a win for the ticket. Hell, a close loss counts as something of a win.

But a bad loss? Would not only take away the enormous plus she once provided, but will make her into a clear net negative, something McCain simply cannot afford. George H. W. Bush could afford a net negative in Dan Quayle. He was running as the third-term of still-popular Reagan, against Michael Dukaksis, for God's sake. McCain does not have that latitude.

Rasmussen Agrees: Thirty-four percent -- one third! -- say the debate is "key" to their vote.

Seems to me those are mostly wanna-vote-for-Palin-voters who are seeking reassurance she's up to the job. No one cares about what Biden says. He's a jackass and a bit of an idiot and everyone knows that already.

Good news: At best, we can gain five points in one night.

Bad news: At worst, we can lose five.

(Adjusted the numbers, which were always dodgy, but were, previously, flat-out ridiculous. Thanks to Karl for telling me not to be an idiot. I knew I was being an idiot, but I was sort of... I don't know. Being an idiot.)

posted by Ace at 06:34 PM

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