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September 24, 2008

Polls: Trending Obama

Gallup has Obama maintaining his three point edge, Rasmussen has Obama up by 2, a fairly big shift since yesterday's track showed them tied.

A FoxNews poll (not yet included in the RCP average) has Obama up by six -- and, oddly, McCain under 40%. They show it 45-39.

The Washington Post poll showing Obama up 52-43 had an interesting party split -- 54% Democrats, 38% Republicans (with leaners). My takeaway? Obama's underperforming even given this enormously favorable sample.

Whatever the actual numbers are, there's a genuine though possibly quite modest and evanscent trend towards Obama, and he's probably up by 3-4 points at the moment. Partly this is due to the official end of Palinmania, at least among swinging voters, thanks the media's relentless 3 week campaign against her, and partly this is due to the economy, and the public's uninformed guess that any time there's some problem with Wall Street or finance, it must be because of the Republicans helping out their buddies.

They couldn't be more wrong, of course. The election will be won or lost based on McCain's effectiveness at reversing that built-in narrative.

Official Obama Campaign Website The New York Timesblog realizes this, of course, and is claiming that Rick Davis was paid by Freddie and Fannie to lobby for them through last month, an allegation the McCain campaign denies in the strongest terms.

Meanwhile, the New York Timesblog has never heard of Penny Pritizker, the Michael Milken of Subprime Mortgages, and Obama's National Finance Chair.

Nor have their world-class blog-on-paper posters (almost as good as the posters at the Huffington Post) stumbled upon the well-kept secret that Fannie and Freddie donated hugely to Democrats.

Incidentally, I don't know why McCain agreed to allow Friday's debate to shift from the economic agenda scheduled to the foreign policy agenda it will now explore. Seems like a huge error to agree to that change. He needs to reverse uninformed public opinion on this, and he gave up his highest-profile near-term chance to do so.

Protein Wisdom vs. the New York Timesblog: Good article.

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posted by Ace at 02:01 PM

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