The Real, Original DNC Bunker Vid | Main | Obama's GOTV push in FL has started
September 17, 2008

Pardon Me, I Need to Take a Go-Hang-Myself-in-the-Garage Break

CBS Poll: Obama by five, making up seven in two weeks, as the Palin draw fades.

Not Bipolar: People are telling me the poll seems to oversample Democrats and all that jazz. Well, I don't know if it does or it doesn't -- these things are fluid, and we're in a Wall-Street-caused financial crisis. And rightly or wrongly, the public thinks the GOP is the party of Wall Street.

Do I buy the numbers? Not necessarily. But you don't need a Weatherman like Bill Ayers to know which way the wind blows. And the wind is blowing Obama's way-- all the polls say this. All of them. Not merely CBS.

Even if I don't buy the exact numbers, I do buy the trends. Even if CBS deliberately samples more Democrats, even within that skewed sample, there is considerable movement back to Obama.

Does this mean the election is over? Of course not. I already said -- when I was gloating -- there were five or six major twists to come yet. This is the first twist.

We haven't lost -- but we are behind.

Four or five twists to go, and we need two or three of those twists to go our way.

BTW, I am not getting into the constant these-polls-are-wrong/oversampled/etc. game. I played that all through 2006 and wound up looking like a chump.

My general take is to buy polls -- especially as regards direction, if not exact numbers -- unless there's some clear problem with them.

The constant complaining that any poll I don't like must be flawed is a mug's game.


digg this
posted by Ace at 07:07 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone famil ..."

Sandra F.: "[i]That means they're really being hard if Jimmy c ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "Are we now lactophilia intolerant? Posted by: buz ..."

Lost Shaker Assault: "I've been a chef, cook, and restaurant manager 35 ..."

Donna&&&&V sez: Sorry Tribe fans. Go Astros!: "Not entirely OT, here is a vid of some sane - and ..."

Cosmic Charlie: "Tina Weymouth was extraordinary ..."

buzzsaw90: "One word: lactophilia. And celebrity chefs. Pu ..."

filbert: "[i]"Diversity" by itself is valueless. A bucket of ..."

Insomniac - Getting Microaggressed on the Daily, Yo!: "508 Let's face it, diversity is weakness, straight ..."

colfax mingo: "Eromero, Not a poet, but not a bullshitter eith ..."

Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "It starts with lactophilia, then, the pudding. ..."

publius, the Persistent Poperin Pear: " Another good one for the Food Thread. Anyone fa ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64