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September 17, 2008

Pardon Me, I Need to Take a Go-Hang-Myself-in-the-Garage Break

CBS Poll: Obama by five, making up seven in two weeks, as the Palin draw fades.

Not Bipolar: People are telling me the poll seems to oversample Democrats and all that jazz. Well, I don't know if it does or it doesn't -- these things are fluid, and we're in a Wall-Street-caused financial crisis. And rightly or wrongly, the public thinks the GOP is the party of Wall Street.

Do I buy the numbers? Not necessarily. But you don't need a Weatherman like Bill Ayers to know which way the wind blows. And the wind is blowing Obama's way-- all the polls say this. All of them. Not merely CBS.

Even if I don't buy the exact numbers, I do buy the trends. Even if CBS deliberately samples more Democrats, even within that skewed sample, there is considerable movement back to Obama.

Does this mean the election is over? Of course not. I already said -- when I was gloating -- there were five or six major twists to come yet. This is the first twist.

We haven't lost -- but we are behind.

Four or five twists to go, and we need two or three of those twists to go our way.

BTW, I am not getting into the constant these-polls-are-wrong/oversampled/etc. game. I played that all through 2006 and wound up looking like a chump.

My general take is to buy polls -- especially as regards direction, if not exact numbers -- unless there's some clear problem with them.

The constant complaining that any poll I don't like must be flawed is a mug's game.

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posted by Ace at 07:07 PM

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