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September 13, 2008

Palinized Conservatives "Far More" Enthusiastic Than in 2004?

The Night of the Living Dead, liberals and media analysts (but I repeat myself) said as tens of thousands of conservative voters they didn't even know existed poured into rural and suburban voting places to cast votes for Bush in 2004. Kerry had thought, based on polls and likely GOTV models, he'd win Ohio. It was not to be. In fact, in the end, it wasn't even especially close.

Time for a Dawn of the Dead sequel? And bear in mind, Dawn of the Dead was better than the original.

Canada Free Press writes of a "poll" of conservative enthusiasm, but the thing is, it's conducted by an advocacy organization (Grassfire.org) and the high number of people "polled" -- 16,000 -- makes me strongly suspect (well-nigh conclude, actually) that this isn't really a random poll, but a survey of the self-selected members of grassfire.org. So the actual results are not really remotely scientific.

However, if its own members are very enthused, it's a pretty good (if not rigorous) proxy for the likely enthusiasm of the Conservative Zombie Hordes needed to flood into polling booths on election day. Grassfire.org, after all, is all about reflecting that demographic.

Actually, it's largely about fighting amnesty and urging security first, so if this somewhat-hostile organization's membership is enthusiastic, it bodes well for McCain-Palin. Turning out the base at 2004 levels -- or better -- is a necessary but not sufficient precondition for a Republican victory.


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posted by Ace at 04:46 PM

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