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September 12, 2008

Polls: Good News From Rasmussen, Bad News from Gallup

Rasmussen shows McCain finally out in front with a 3 point lead. Previous polls have showed McCain either tied or behind by one (among leaners).

And, as noted, Rasmussen weights by party, which they adjust each month. They're currently assuming the big Republican response they're getting is an aberration, and so are knocking down McCain's numbers as he's getting support from "too many Republicans" in the sample. They'll change that if these aberrant numbers prove to not be aberrations at all. (It's actually possible they already did this adjustment -- but if they did, one would imagine they would have noted it in their explanation as to why the numbers shifted so much. They mention other explanations, but not this one.)

And the bad news? The Gallup generic congressional tracking shows Republicans behind by a scant 48-45, which means there is an outsized chance we could pick up seats in November.

The bad news in that?

Well, Republicans can't win in Congress in November, I don't think, due to the fact that we had a very poor recruitment season, and in many races, we simply don't have a seriously competitive candidate. The generic number may look better than reality. Unfortunately, Republicans' fortunes were so down from 2006 through this year that many would-be candidates didn't bother to run.

Still, it's possible we could hold steady or even gain a seat here or there.

If only The Jews had let everyone in on the secret They were going to engineer Sarah Palin's candidacy. But The Jews work in mysterious ways.

Is that annoying? Maybe a little. But we can't second-guess them.

William Russell, who hopes to kick Jack Murtha out on his corrupt, cellulite-marbled old pale ass, might benefit from a little dollar-love.

Better Bets? Russell has a lot of money as it is and DPUD tells me he's unlikely to win.

He suggests donating to these Pennsylvania candidates if you're so inclined:

Chris Hackett and Lou Barletta.

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posted by Ace at 02:08 PM

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