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September 12, 2008

Psst... About that Gallup Congress poll...

PA links this story below. But the news could be both better and worse than you think.

First, on the "worse": although the Gallup analysis is new, the numbers are from that same groundbreaking USA Today/Gallup poll from Monday that showed McCain up by 4 with registered voters, 10 with likely voters, and Republican party ID remarkably recovered. So it's not new news, just part of that amazing package of old news.

As for "better": the Gallup analysis buries the lede, reporting that the Dem Generic Congress advantage "slips to 3 points" when in fact that's just the registered voters number. Adjusted for likely voters -- which has, traditionally, given better predictions -- the GOP actually has a 5 point lead! (Full numbers here.)

Could the numbers be way off on this one wildly optimistic poll? Well, maybe, but one key thing to note is that the figure on which we have comparable recent polling data -- McCain vs. Obama among registered voters -- has been pretty consistent between this poll (McCain +4) and others (Gallup daily has most recently had McCain at +5 and +4, with other polls a bit less but in the same vicinity).

Oh, and by the way, that Gallup piece notes that they do survey cell phones. Sorry, Kos Kiddies...


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posted by xgenghisx at 12:55 PM

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