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September 09, 2008

MSNBC Poll: Dead Heat, Obama with One Point Lead, Just as Kos Diarist's "Little Bird" Told Him
McCain Cuts Lead with Women to 4%, And Yet Still Loses? Did Obama Steal All of Our Precious White Men Away?

Wow! A one point lead!

This truly has "changed the way [I] look at the world!"

First Look: Registered voters, not likely. 860 of them. The Gallup poll polled 1022 adults, 959 of whom were registered voters, and then further narrowed that field into a smaller number of "likely voters."

The poll reinforces other polls' findings -- that McCain/Palin have substantially eaten into Obama's lead among women. Here, they find a 14 point lead has been chopped to 4 points.

And yet Obama remains ahead? That would mean McCain leads men by only 6 2 or 3 points. Possible, I guess, but seems unlikely. Update: My pollster says a lead of up to 10% (or that range) among men is far more likely, making me wonder how the hell McCain managed to do so well with women -- a tiny 4% gap -- while simultaneously losing almost all of the Republicans' historic lead with mem.

My Pollster Source: Is reading this now. So far--

McCain's impressions are good, really good Palin's are smokin'


Here's the PDF with more detailed results.

No mention of the methodology of the poll-- what was weighted on.

Yeah...: Someone writes:

Note that this is the EXACT SAME RESULT as yesterday's ABC/WaPo poll (47-46 Obama lead among registered voters), but the Dems weren't so eager to push that one in the media.

Why? Because the ABC/WaPo one also had a likely voters breakdown: 49-47, a 2 point McCain lead. Whoops!

Hasn't your world been rocked? Heh.






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