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September 09, 2008

Want Some Futures Market Advice?

Buy soybean options *. Yeah, I know soybean prices are still way up there, but trust me, they're gonna go higher.

My reasoning? Due to the wetter spring we had here this year, the corn crop had a delayed planting. Traditionally, farmers get all their corn in before they switch to beans, so the delay on corn, coupled with the wet weather lasting through June, meant that our bean crop was especially late getting into the ground. A lot of people switched to short season beans (that's the number of days they'll take to fully germinate, some beans are selected genetically to mature faster than others), but many people in our area stuck with their original bean seed. I guess they figured that switching seed would cost extra, plus they typically insure their crop, so an early frost would be covered. Plus, short season seed always has lower per acre yields than full season seed, so that might have been a factor in the gamble. The bottom line is that people in Iowa who watch the bean crop are keeping their fingers crossed for a late frost to max out the growing season for both the corn & beans, but especially the beans.

This new announcement ain't gonna help. "The Al Gore Effect" has been shown to cause catastrophic drops in temperatures, especially when former Vice President Gore gives a speech. I'm not sure if it's too early, since I can remember several times in my lifetime that we've had our first hard frost before October 4, but with the condition of our bean crop, we need every day of growing season we can get this year.

Great, because of one fat politician and his bad karma, we're all gonna be paying an extra 10% for our food in the next year. Damn Al Gore and his hubris. Damn him all to Hell.

* - Dude, this is a definite Caveat Emptor situation. If you want to take investment advice from a guy who typically posts on the Joys of Bacon and how Joe Biden reminds me of Milton Waddams, go ahead. Just dont' come crying to me if a miracle happens and the crop comes in OK.

UPDATE: I probably should have mentioned that I heard on the noon farm show on WHO Radio today that the USDA is still bullish on the soybean crop, despite concerns. I'm just going off what I see locally, plus some speculation from a couple of market people I know.


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posted by Russ from Winterset at 01:29 PM

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