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September 06, 2008

Zogby: McCain-Palin Now Lead By (Almost) 4
Update: It's a Genuine Black-Swan Phenomenon

Boom.

Forget the numbers, which are always squiffy. Observe the direction.

But if you do what to look at actual numbers, note that when Palin and Biden aren't mentioned, McCain only has a three point lead. With the running mates mentioned, not only does McCain pick up almost a full point, but the pair clock in at 49.7% -- which is what we call a majority in America. (Given the 1-2% draw of third-party tickets.)

Unfortunately, Palin is not helping with undecided women. I sort of feared that.

On the plus side, she helps with many other groups:

Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money.

Suffice to say if Palin actually does start to draw women voters, forget it, turn out the lights, it's over. Katie bar the door.

We won't even need Bush to cancel the elections and declare himself El Jefe Maximo Por Libre, as left has long insisted he would. (And, actually, I admit, has always been our Plan A. But now Plan B is looking pretty good too.)

Hot Air's headlines.

Also-- I haven't bothered because there's just so much of it, but if you haven't read it all, check Hot Air for all the scandal-debunkings and balloon-poppings.

Although I too take pleasure in this shit being debunked, and imagining Sullivan crying so much he needs Gatorade injections to rehydrate himself, the left-wing and the media (but I repeat myself) is simply throwing every piece of shit rumor out there without vetting. It's disgraceful -- but it's also not working.

And in the few areas where a good case can be made against Palin -- tough shit, DKM, no one's listening any more. You lose.


Magical Mystery Tour: Meet the Beatles.

Quote from the naturally pessimistic Allah:

Just listen to the crowd. Iíve honestly never seen anything like this for a conservative politician before.

Those are roars. You can't fake this.

I would say something stupid right now like "It's over, Obama is toast."

The trouble is, there are still five or six major twists to come in this thriller.

My problem with this speech is that she's mostly just repeating her very-good nomination speech. I know it's a "stump speech," and as such frequently repeated, but she has to start varying it up a little bit, like a band changing its set list every show. Sure, most of the songs are still the same, but you slip in a different unexpected song from time to time.

In this one, she mentions reforming Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which is what I'm talking about, but that's just one different song.

McCain also should start campaigning with rotating all-stars like Huckabee and Thompson, and send out Palin separately to cover different cities and towns with other big names -- especially Giuliani, whenever possible.

The Giuliani-Palin combination is already a proven killer.

Some Movement With Women: Rasmussen shows some movement with women. They show Obambi with a 1 point lead (three with leaners), but if women are moving towards McCain/Palin, well, we'll have not two weeks of gloating but two months.

My Attempt at Shooting an Idea to the Campaign: Hey, Geraghty had one of his suggested lines (a killer line) incorporated into the speech.

mccainsign.jpg

Thanks to Slublog for knocking that together.


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posted by Ace at 09:50 PM

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