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July 11, 2008

Hmmm...: Speculation About Israel Attack on Iran, Coming in Early September

His point is that the signals for war aren't military, chiefly, but political, and the politics signal giving Iran six more weeks to show some responsiveness to diplomacy before Israel is given the go-ahead.

I find this part of the analysis unlikely:

I can't say I'm excited about this bill, but I can live with it, perhaps literally. Following an attack on Iran by Israel, Iran is not going to find much success trying to sink the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in the Indian Ocean, but they might have a great deal of success killing you and me here in America. We don't believe for one second that Iran is going to abide by the Geneva Conventions and not intentionally support the killing of American civilians in North America. If war happens, they are as likely if not more likely to attack here than in the Gulf. Whether you like it or not, there was absolutely no way the Democrats, including Barack Obama, were going to leave the possibility open that Israel attacks Iran, and the US gets hit by terrorist attacks inside the US while the FISA bill wasn't passed.

This is a key point. The Democratic Party in mass shifted from a core position. This doesn't happen without keen awareness to some strategic condition. Clearly some outside force has produced conditions which are far outside the scope of national politics, because nothing short of insight and real concern for political survival would Democrats find inspiration for such a massive policy shift with virtually no explanation to its core constituency. This is a major reason, and to Democrats scratching still their heads, an obvious sign we believe that Israel has demanded a time table.

But what do I know.

Thanks to Robb.

Related: Arab states hint at "Meh, do what you want" attitude regarding attacking Iran.

Then again, they've also stated there is no plan to ramp up production on an emergency basis should war break out and oil delivery be disrupted, which is a polite way of saying "If you do this, you're screwed."

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posted by Ace at 12:53 PM

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