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July 09, 2008

Months of Painstaking Diplomacy with Iran Finally Bears Sweet Fruit

Taking the form of the test-firing of nine missiles, reputably capable of hitting Israel and all US bases in the Middle East.

Obama promises more diplomacy -- hopefully we can diplomacy our way to the Iranian nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile.

Snark aside, diplomacy can only work when one side wants something from the other side, which the other side is prepared to give. This situation does not exist with respect to Iran. For diplomacy to work, the situation would have to change -- the most obvious (though unlikely) game-changer would be US jets pounding Iranian nuclear, military, and governmental sites for a few weeks. In such a case, Iranian would want something from us, namely, to stop with the bombing already.

Other scenarios might change the situation such that Iran would affirmatively desire something from the US and would be willing to give up its missile and especially nuclear research to have it, but it's hard to imagine what those might be. Obama only suggests "more economic sanctions," without explaining what such sanctions might consist of, and why these sanctions would compel a change of behavior whereas previous sanctions did not.

A full-on embargo of refined gasoline to Iran might force a crisis, but that's a provocative step (and, if a blockade is used to achieve it, as it would have to, an act of war), so of course Obama doesn't suggest that.

What precisely is he thinking of here? As with every other "policy" of his, you'll just have to guess and/or hope for the best.

Or maybe he has actually told us already, but we just weren't listening.


More: Obama's statement was typically fatuous and insipid. Jim Geraghty breaks it down, stupidity by stupidity.

This guy isn't the Messiah. He's Captain Bullshit.


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posted by Ace at 02:05 PM

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