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May 06, 2008
Latest Polls: Insider Advantage Calls It a Split; Zogby's Special Sauce Smothers Obama With Twin Wins
Insider Advantage: NC Obama +4 and only 4; Indiana Hillary +4.
Zogby puts Obama up by 14 in North Carolina and up 2 in Indiana.
Given Ambinder's back of the envelope demographic analysis, it seems Hillary can't win NC under any likely scenario, unless she carries white voters by eye-popping majorities. Which she almost certainly can't, as the white Democrats in college-heavy NC are almost as lockstep for Obama as black voters are.
On the other hand, a solid win in Indiana and a narrow loss in North Carolina keeps Hillary viable. If she doesn't manage both, superdelegates may rush to wrap this all up now and put her down.
This post is also good. It's possible, a generally-pessimistic Republican analyst says, that this year could be disastrous for the Democrats on the presidential level.