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May 05, 2008

New Polls Put Hillary Up By Twelve In Indiana, and... Down by only Three In North Carolina?

Gotta get off the Iron Man thing and post news.

If you want to skip the cross-tabs stuff, read the first paragraph or two and then skip down to the "Dude?" at the end.

Tomorrow is do-or-die for Hillary. More and more delegates are publicly admitting what they'd long decided -- to support Barack Obama. Even many of Hillary's former supporters are shifting, and more threaten to should she not make an impressive stand tomorrow.

But there's actually an outside chance she will make such an impressive stand. If she can win Indiana convincingly and only narrowly lose North Carolina with all its black Democratic voters, she's got some real momentum.

And if she can actually beat Obama in North Carolina -- long considered an automatic win for him, and actually a easy, big automatic win for him -- Obama's own momentum is not merely arrested but reversed, and nearly disastrously. It's possible -- Obama always polls better than he performs.

And Hillary has a series of in-the-bag states coming up for her (West Virgina, Kentucky) and the Hillary-is-a-Winner storyline will dominate the news.

Wins would also allow her to effect "The Nuclear Option" -- ramming through a rules-change to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates and almost negating Obama's pledged-delegate lead. A majority of those on the rules committee are Hillary supporters, but they won't take such a serious and possibly calamitous step without serious evidence that she just might win this thing (and should win this thing).

Twin victories tomorrow would make that Nuclear Option... well, still very unlikely. But possible, at least.

Corrected: Hillary down by three, not up by three. Thanks to Allah for straightening out my loose shit.

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posted by Ace at 02:29 PM

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