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March 19, 2008

Former Global Warming Activist: Equations Used In Super-Awesome Computer Models Completely Wrong; Runaway Unlimited Greehnouse Warming Impossible

Previously on Global Warming Mystery Theater: Can you solve The Mystery of the Missing Oceanic Heat?

On to the thrilling conclusion:

As a bonus, the corrected equations neatly model the "global warming" going on on Mars, too. Where I'm pretty sure everyone who has a car drives an electric-powered Prius, so it seems unlikely that human-produced CO2 (the Invisible Killer) could be the culprit.

New derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect reveals "runaway warming" impossible

Miklós Zágoni isn't just a physicist and environmental researcher. He is also a global warming activist and Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol. Or was.

That was until he learned the details of a new theory of the greenhouse effect, one that not only gave far more accurate climate predictions here on Earth, but Mars too. The theory was developed by another Hungarian scientist, Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Langley Research Center.

After studying it, Zágoni stopped calling global warming a crisis, and has instead focused on presenting the new theory to other climatologists. The data fit extremely well. "I fell in love," he stated at the International Climate Change Conference this week.

"Runaway greenhouse theories contradict energy balance equations," Miskolczi states. Just as the theory of relativity sets an upper limit on velocity, his theory sets an upper limit on the greenhouse effect, a limit which prevents it from warming the Earth more than a certain amount.

How did modern researchers make such a mistake? They relied upon equations derived over 80 years ago, equations which left off one term from the final solution.

Miskolczi's story reads like a book. Looking at a series of differential equations for the greenhouse effect, he noticed the solution -- originally done in 1922 by Arthur Milne, but still used by climate researchers today -- ignored boundary conditions by assuming an "infinitely thick" atmosphere. Similar assumptions are common when solving differential equations; they simplify the calculations and often result in a result that still very closely matches reality. But not always.

So Miskolczi re-derived the solution, this time using the proper boundary conditions for an atmosphere that is not infinite. His result included a new term, which acts as a negative feedback to counter the positive forcing. At low levels, the new term means a small difference ... but as greenhouse gases rise, the negative feedback predominates, forcing values back down.

NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.

The super-awesome mega-computers running state-of-the-art perfectly-calibrated climate models assumed the earth's atmosphere was infinitely thick.

Infinitely thick.

Infinitely.

Thick.

Ummm... can I ask a question?

Are these super-awesome climate models sophisticated enough to include a Sun and a spherical earth, rather than a flat one? Just want to make sure y'all aren't simplifying any other conditions to help your models run more smoothly.

Oh, and in these super-awesome climate models... What color are the infinite skies on your made-up world?

Just wanted to know.

Thanks to JeffC.

Meanwhile, At MSNBC: Global Warming Hastens Arrival of Spring.

Um, this past year was the coldest in 100 years, guys. That "Global Coldening" seems to be continuing.

How y'all enjoying your early-arrival spring? Here, in the NYC area, I gotta tell ya, it's a blistering 42 degrees, which is about five degrees balmier than it was yesterday.

It's like the jungles of Colombia here. I swear to God, I feel like I'm Joan Wilder in Romancing the Stone.

Can you show me the way to Cartegena? I can pay you. I have money.


Thanks to Marky.


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posted by Ace at 05:13 PM

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