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January 29, 2008

Exit Polls/Florida Results Trickling In

McCain Wins? The Romney camp is offering the spin that Mitt managed a "stunning comback" after a ten point deficit a week ago.

Which is code, I take it, for the likelihood McCain will win. With almost half the vote in, McCain leads by 3%. I imagine his lead is largely due to independents registering as Republicans in the past several weeks, as there is no real Democratic contest there. (The DNC stripped Florida of its delegates as a punishment for moving up its primary.)

Romney can still pull this out, even without Florida. But it's obviously tough sledding.

After Mega Tuesday, we're probably going to have to make a very difficult decision.

Very sketchy results at the moment. I just posted that Romney was up by 0.5%, now I see Drudge has McCain up by 2.0%.

Prof. Rusty Shackleford emails me an interesting outcome: No winner in Florida until after Mega Tuesday. If the race is close enough, and if every absentee ballot needs to be counted, and if enough districts in Florida allow fairly late postmarking to count... well, you can see what I'm driving at.

Results... Precinct by precinct. Not enough there to figure much out. (Link fixed, thanks to AliceH.)

Fred Thompson's getting 1.4%. Aaarggh.

More: Sixty percent of GOP primary voters self-identify as conservative. That's up 10% from 1992 when only half did.


Exit polls mean very little, of course. But for what it's worth.

The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent.

Including absentees? I guess they just poll people and ask if they've voted absentee.

There are still two hours of polling. So vote -- against McCain. Sorry, but even if he's to be our nominee, I'd like to at least force Mr. Straight Talk to pander to win.

A nice start would be a vow not to consider Comprehensive Piece of Shit his first term. Any realistic plan of "securing the borders" would take three years, minimum, even assuming McCain worked at hard (which is daft assumption), so a four year promise isn't even inconsistent with his current position.

If he means it, that is.

Lowry Hears McCain 33, Romney 32... whic is slightly better. But then, these polls are going to be off at at least 4 or 5% both ways, so these differences are pretty trivial.

Updates: Conservative turnout high, absentees breaking by six points for Mitt? so says the Binary Beta Male.

Partisan Radio Talk Show Raises Questions of Faulty Voter Technology, "Disenfranchisement," Double-Voting: Relax, it's Limbaugh having trouble with his touch-screen voting booth.

He may have voted twice. I'm sure there'll be Congressional investigations into this by week's end.

This electronic voting is idiotic, by the way.

Thanks to Alice H. for that.


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posted by Ace at 08:59 PM

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